From Reluctant Respect to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Maduro.

A shock assault on the capital in the dead of night, culminating in the capture of the country's president. Within a day, the foreign force declares its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Russian officials have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of international law and a worrying development. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was supposed to unfold: fast, decisive and conclusive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general planned to be engaged in combat for four years.”

Such commentary have fed a atmosphere of introspection among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how audacious the American action appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – hoping to forging a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

However, even with Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for the Caracas government just in late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other key allies lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to express outrage. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so far away is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with Trump on that issue far outweighs the fate of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Still, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more nakedly power-based world order – one where might, rather than law, determines results.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than international law.”